Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Ecosystem Growing Steadily – CoinShares Report

The CoinShares Q3 Mining Report highlights the key challenges and strategic shifts within Bitcoin mining, focusing on rising production costs, access to alternative funding, and the impact of energy efficiency on profitability. As Bitcoin prices fluctuate and rewards halve every four years, miners are grappling with increased operational costs, decreased hash prices, and higher difficulty levels. Many have continued to expand, with some firms focusing on cheaper energy sources and alternative income streams, such as AI hosting, to offset risks and maximize profitability.

Rising Production Costs and Profitability Pressures

Bitcoin mining costs have increased, with the estimated average cash cost to mine one Bitcoin reaching $49,500 in Q2, up from $47,200 in Q1. Factoring in depreciation and stock-based compensation, this rises to an average of $96,100, challenging profitability for many. Firms are tackling these costs by investing in cheaper energy solutions, particularly stranded gas and renewables, though these resources are not universally accessible. This trend underscores the need for miners to remain adaptive in sourcing and managing energy to maintain margins.

Funding Constraints and Shareholder Concerns

Limited access to credit following the FTX collapse and rising interest rates have hindered miners’ ability to secure affordable financing. Consequently, companies have relied heavily on share issuance, leading to shareholder dilution and frustration. Despite Bitcoin’s price alignment with public miner stock prices, recent gains from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launches have largely bypassed miners, adding to the funding pressures.

Hashrate Modelling and Future Projections

CoinShares’ hashrate model, which considers physical and energy constraints, projects Bitcoin’s hashrate will reach 765 EH/s by year-end, with a theoretical upper limit tied to stranded gas resources potentially achieved by 2050. If the entire network shifted to stranded gas, it could cut carbon emissions from flared gas by 63%. CoinShares anticipates a steady decline in hash prices, with profitability metrics suggesting minimal gains until after the next halving in 2028.

Mining Versus Direct Investment in Bitcoin

CoinShares’ profitability analysis of mining versus direct Bitcoin investment reveals that under current conditions, holding Bitcoin may yield better returns. Although a 1 MW mining project could theoretically recoup its investment within 27 months if Bitcoin reaches $130,000 by 2026, direct investment in Bitcoin might remain more attractive without significant fee income growth in mining. Miners are exploring diversification, with some shifting into AI-based income streams to bolster revenues.

Competitive Cost Management and Efficiency

The report ranks mining companies based on production costs, with Cormint and TeraWulf standing out for their low costs at $14.9k and $18.7k per Bitcoin, respectively. Cormint achieves this through innovative power management and in-house strategies, while TeraWulf benefits from a fixed-rate power contract with a nuclear facility. Riot, another major player, has implemented extensive curtailment strategies, which allowed it to earn $13.9 million in power credits in Q2, helping offset high power expenses.

The “hashcost” metric, measuring daily operational costs per PH/s, shows that managing these costs is critical, especially as block rewards halve. Some miners, particularly those diversifying into AI, have achieved positive cash flow through alternative revenue sources, potentially mitigating the impact of halving.

Capital Efficiency and Market Dynamics

Miners are under pressure to reduce capital expenditures while maintaining growth amid price volatility. Public companies like Hut-8 have managed to reduce accumulated losses through careful capital management, while others struggle with shareholder dilution due to rising expenses. CoinShares compares the mining industry’s capital dynamics to oil extraction: as the resource becomes harder to obtain, maintaining profitability requires significant capital investment. Riot’s strategy, for example, involves curtailment credits and power purchase agreements to minimize costs and maximize power availability.

Infrastructure Acquisitions and AI Hosting

To meet expansion needs efficiently, several companies have opted for acquisitions over new infrastructure build-outs. For example, Cleanspark and Bitfarms expanded by acquiring existing facilities, while Riot and Core Scientific have pursued high-power-density AI hosting setups. These moves allow firms to scale without the burden of extensive construction costs, while AI hosting offers a more stable revenue stream.

Strategic Implications for Bitcoin Mining

The CoinShares Q3 report emphasizes that efficiency and strategic pivots are critical for mining firms to survive increasing costs and competitive pressures. The industry’s shift toward alternative revenue streams and reliance on cost-cutting measures signal a focus on sustainability over pure growth. Companies must manage power effectively, reduce capital expenditure, and explore alternative revenue streams to sustain profitability amid rising costs and rewards halving.

In summary, the Bitcoin mining sector is facing a challenging landscape where adaptability, cost management, and diversification are crucial for long-term success.